Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.291829 0.341962 0.396586 0.460326 0.532455 0.611336 0.703910
2025-04-27 0.209279 0.270972 0.343737 0.435172 0.546213 0.675875 0.837846
2025-05-04 0.156373 0.223324 0.308572 0.423407 0.572167 0.756333 0.999258
2025-05-11 0.116682 0.184376 0.277524 0.411917 0.597173 0.839479 1.175534
2025-05-18 0.081176 0.143365 0.236417 0.380698 0.592642 0.885527 1.312221
2025-05-25 0.054817 0.109267 0.198342 0.347144 0.580189 0.920163 1.439593
2025-06-01 0.039403 0.088671 0.176634 0.334380 0.596560 0.998323 1.638765
2025-06-08 0.027917 0.071483 0.156669 0.320782 0.610000 1.074756 1.846089
2025-06-15 0.021472 0.062151 0.148683 0.326510 0.656483 1.208954 2.157878
2025-06-22 0.014444 0.048553 0.128750 0.306314 0.655537 1.267434 2.358547
2025-06-29 0.009966 0.039044 0.114560 0.294217 0.667431 1.349403 2.607649
2025-07-06 0.006707 0.031024 0.101135 0.280611 0.674338 1.423957 2.853285
2025-07-13 0.004831 0.026333 0.094832 0.282507 0.715073 1.569354 3.246121
2025-07-20 0.003306 0.021665 0.086831 0.278606 0.743693 1.696920 3.622973
2025-07-27 0.002348 0.018472 0.081930 0.281472 0.788274 1.862032 4.087989
2025-08-03 0.001629 0.015609 0.076837 0.282669 0.829840 2.027181 4.571442
2025-08-10 0.000967 0.011970 0.067009 0.267543 0.830080 2.108079 4.901910
2025-08-17 0.000528 0.008848 0.057088 0.248707 0.817380 2.160202 5.181808
2025-08-24 0.000321 0.007139 0.052091 0.244137 0.841162 2.295833 5.645951
2025-08-31 0.000186 0.005670 0.047111 0.237918 0.859478 2.421823 6.102983
2025-09-07 0.000127 0.005016 0.046071 0.246057 0.920424 2.654509 6.808456
2025-09-14 0.000062 0.003760 0.040201 0.233137 0.917175 2.734412 7.191079
2025-09-21 0.000031 0.002927 0.036146 0.225995 0.930104 2.855520 7.676005